prediction of landslide hazard in sikan river basin using logistic regression model

نویسندگان

محمدرضا ثروتی

استاد دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی کاظم نصرتی

استادیار دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی شیما حسنوندی

کارشناس ارشد ژئومورفولوژی، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی بابک میرباقری

مربی مرکز gis و سنجش از دور، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

چکیده

landslides and slope instabilities are major hazards for human activities often causing economiclosses and property damages. sikan river basin (ilam province) due to the topography, tectonic,lithology, and climate has enough potential for occurrence of this phenomenon. the objectives of thisstudy were to determine effective parameters controlling the landslide occurrence and to preparezonation map of landslide risk in sykan river basin. in view of this, 11 geophysical characteristicsincluding (height, slop, slop direction), geomorphologic (the slop of land surface), geology (lithology,the distance from the fault), hydrography (the distance from the river), coverage, land use (land useand the distance from road, the distance from village), pedology (soil texture), and dependent variable(landslide distribution) were selected an independent variable and were analyzed using logisticregression model. the results showed that the influential factors on landslides occurrence in the basinare the distance from river, land use, the distance from village, the materials (lithology), slope, and theshape of land surface. finally, the study area was classified into five major area based on landslideoccurrence risk which 19.1 km2 of total area had very low risk, 15.9 km2 had low risk, 14.9 km2 hadaverage risk and 14.6 km2 had high risk and 9.1 km2 had also very high risk. the model evaluationshowed a high accuracy 74.2% in the study area. the results of this study can be useful for landsliderisk management and for controlling the accelerated parameters.

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عنوان ژورنال:
مرتع و آبخیزداری

جلد ۶۷، شماره ۱، صفحات ۱۷-۲۹

کلمات کلیدی
landslides and slope instabilities are major hazards for human activities often causing economiclosses and property damages. sikan river basin (ilam province) due to the topography tectonic lithology and climate has enough potential for occurrence of this phenomenon. the objectives of thisstudy were to determine effective parameters controlling the landslide occurrence and to preparezonation map of landslide risk in sykan river basin. in view of this 11 geophysical characteristicsincluding (height slop slop direction) geomorphologic (the slop of land surface) geology (lithology the distance from the fault) hydrography (the distance from the river) coverage land use (land useand the distance from road the distance from village) pedology (soil texture) and dependent variable(landslide distribution) were selected an independent variable and were analyzed using logisticregression model. the results showed that the influential factors on landslides occurrence in the basinare the distance from river land use the distance from village the materials (lithology) slope and theshape of land surface. finally the study area was classified into five major area based on landslideoccurrence risk which 19.1 km2 of total area had very low risk 15.9 km2 had low risk 14.9 km2 hadaverage risk and 14.6 km2 had high risk and 9.1 km2 had also very high risk. the model evaluationshowed a high accuracy 74.2% in the study area. the results of this study can be useful for landsliderisk management and for controlling the accelerated parameters.

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